Crash odds visualiser
In a crash game, your chance of reaching a cash-out multiplier is roughly the game's RTP divided by that multiplier. On a 97% RTP game such as Aviator, a 2× cash-out lands about 48.5% of the time and 10× about 9.7%; whatever target you pick, the average return stays R97 per R100 bet.
How the crash odds visualiser works
Crash games such as Aviator show a multiplier that climbs from 1.00× until it “crashes” at a random point. If you cash out before the crash, you win your bet times the multiplier; if not, you lose the bet.
Most crash games are built so that the chance of reaching a multiplier m is RTP ÷ m (capped at the RTP itself). The visualiser plots that curve from 1× to 20×. Move the slider to your cash-out target and it shows:
- Chance to reach it: RTP ÷ multiplier.
- Return if it hits: your bet × multiplier, in Rands.
- Chance to lose the bet: 100% minus the chance to reach it.
- Average return per bet: bet × RTP, which never changes as you move the slider.
You can change the RTP for games with a different edge (97% is the default, matching Aviator’s published figure) and the bet amount.
A worked example in Rands
Take a R100 bet on a 97% RTP crash game:
| Cash-out | Chance to reach it | Pays if it hits | Average return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | 64.7% | R150 | R97 |
| 2.00× | 48.5% | R200 | R97 |
| 5.00× | 19.4% | R500 | R97 |
| 10.00× | 9.7% | R1,000 | R97 |
| 20.00× | 4.9% | R2,000 | R97 |
The last column is the point. Cashing out at 1.5× feels safe because you win nearly two rounds in three, but the rounds you lose cost more than the small wins bring in. Cashing out at 20× wins rarely but pays big. On average, both cost you R3 for every R100 you bet.
Over 100 rounds of R100 at 2×, you would stake R10,000 and expect back about R9,700. Some sessions will be up, others down a lot more, but that R300 is the price of the entertainment.
Why strategies don’t change the maths
Doubling your bet after a loss (Martingale), waiting for a run of low crashes, or splitting bets between a low and a high target all reshuffle when you win and lose. None changes the RTP. The rounds are independent, and in provably fair crash games the result of each round is fixed by a seed before it starts, which you can check with our provably fair verifier.
Be very wary of “Aviator predictor” apps, Telegram signal groups and anyone selling a system. They cannot see the next crash point.
Where to play and what to read next
Our crash games section lists Aviator, JetX, Spaceman and others with their RTP, and the Aviator casinos list shows where to play in South Africa, including on 1Win. If a crash bonus is on offer, check its wagering with the wagering calculator.
Crash games are fast, and fast games make it easy to lose track. Decide your budget and a stop point before you start. Free help is available from the NRGP on 0800 006 008.
Frequently asked questions
What are the chances of reaching 2x in Aviator?
With Aviator's published 97% RTP, the chance of a round reaching 2.00× is about 97% ÷ 2 = 48.5%. You lose the bet in the other 51.5% of rounds.
Is there a winning strategy for crash games?
No. Whatever multiplier you cash out at, the expected return per bet is the same, roughly the RTP. Low targets win often but pay little; high targets pay a lot but rarely. Martingale-style doubling only increases the size of your losses.
How often does a crash game crash at 1.00x?
It depends on the game. With a 97% RTP model, about 3% of rounds end before any cash-out is possible, which is where the house edge comes from.
Can I predict the next crash point?
No. Each round is independent and, in provably fair games, fixed by a seed before the round starts. Apps and signals that claim to predict Aviator are scams.
What is the chance of hitting 100x?
On a 97% RTP game it is about 0.97%, roughly one round in 103. Expect long losing runs if you aim that high.
Mark has been writing about online gaming since 2007, covering everything from sportsbooks to casino and slot reviews, offering insights for players of all levels.