Draw no bet and double chance

The three-way market first

A standard football match has three outcomes, shown as 1X2:

• 1: home win
• X: draw
• 2: away win

Draw no bet and double chance are both built from those three prices.

Draw no bet

Draw no bet (DNB) removes the draw from the bet. You pick a team:

• Your team wins: you’re paid at the DNB odds.
• The match is drawn: your stake is returned.
• The other team wins: you lose.

It’s the same as an Asian handicap of 0.

Example

Kaizer Chiefs host Orlando Pirates. The 1X2 prices are:

Chiefs draw no bet might be priced around 1.85. You bet R100:

• Chiefs win: you get R185 back (R85 profit).
• Draw: you get R100 back.
• Pirates win: you lose R100.

Compare that with Chiefs at 2.70 in the 1X2 market: R170 profit if they win, but a draw costs you R100.

Double chance

Double chance covers two of the three results in one bet:

• 1X: home win or draw.
• X2: draw or away win.
• 12: home win or away win (anything but a draw).

Using the same match, prices might look like:

A R100 bet on 1X wins R40 profit if Chiefs win or draw, and loses only if Pirates win.

Draw no bet vs double chance

Both lose only if Pirates win. The difference is the draw: with DNB you get your money back, with 1X you win, so 1X is priced lower.

How these markets are priced

Both markets are derived from the 1X2 prices, so you can check whether they’re fair.

Step 1: turn each 1X2 price into a probability. 1 ÷ 2.70 = 37.0%, 1 ÷ 3.00 = 33.3%, 1 ÷ 2.80 = 35.7%. They add up to 106%, so there’s a 6% margin.

Step 2: remove the margin. Divide each by 1.06: Chiefs 34.9%, draw 31.4%, Pirates 33.7%.

Step 3: work out the fair prices.

• Fair DNB on Chiefs: Chiefs’ chance among non-drawn games is 34.9 ÷ (34.9 + 33.7) = 50.9%, so the fair price is about 1.97.
• Fair 1X: 34.9 + 31.4 = 66.3%, so the fair price is about 1.51.

If the bookmaker offers 1.85 DNB and 1.40 1X, you’re paying roughly 6% and 7% margin respectively, similar to the main market. If a bookmaker offers much less, the derived market is more expensive than the main one. Our odds converter does the conversion, and our guide to how betting odds work explains margins.

Why these markets suit the PSL

South African football has a reputation for tight, low-scoring matches, and draws are a regular result in the Betway Premiership, especially between mid-table sides and in derbies. That makes a backed team “not losing” a valuable thing to bet on.

• Draw no bet suits a team you think is slightly better but could be held: an away favourite at a hard ground, or a big side in a cagey derby.
• Double chance X2 suits an underdog you think won’t lose, such as a solid defensive team away from home.
• Double chance 12 suits a match you expect to be open, between two attacking sides, where a draw looks unlikely.

Our PSL betting guide covers the league in more detail, and our PSL betting sites list compares bookmakers.

Using them in multibets

Draw no bet and double chance are popular as multibet legs, because they make each leg more likely to land. A four-leg multibet with every leg at 1.40 still pays 3.84, and each leg wins far more often than a straight win bet.

Two cautions:

1. The margin still compounds. Every leg carries the bookmaker’s margin, so four double chance legs at 7% each cost you roughly a quarter of the bet’s fair value. See our accumulator guide.
2. Minimum odds rules. Many bonuses and multibet boosts need each leg at 1.20 to 1.50 or more. Short double chance prices like 1.15 may not qualify.

A worked example in Rands

Say you have R300 for a weekend and like three teams not to lose:

• Sundowns away at a mid-table side: 1X2 price 1.70, DNB about 1.30.
• Stellenbosch at home to a bigger club: 1X2 price 3.10, double chance 1X about 1.55.
• Pirates at home: 1X2 price 1.90, DNB about 1.45.

Option A, three singles at R100: If all three come in, you profit R30 + R55 + R45 = R130. If one draws, that stake is returned (DNB) or still wins (1X).

Option B, one multibet at R100: Odds 1.30 × 1.55 × 1.45 = 2.92. If all three land you profit R192, but one loss (or, in some books, a voided DNB leg resettling the odds) changes everything.

Singles take longer to win much, but they lose far less often. The multibet is a bigger payout for a lower chance. Neither is “right”; pick the one that suits your budget and how you like to bet.

Other markets that work the same way

Draw no bet and double chance belong to a family of markets that change how a draw or a narrow result is treated:

• Asian handicap +0.5 / −0.5. Backing a team at +0.5 is the same as double chance (win or draw); backing at −0.5 is the same as a straight win.
• Asian handicap 0.25 (quarter ball). Half your stake goes on draw no bet and half on the straight win (or win-or-draw). A draw returns half your stake or wins half, depending on the side.
• Win to nil, clean sheet and “no draw” specials. Narrower versions with their own prices.

If you understand how draw no bet is priced from the 1X2 market, you can check any of these the same way: turn the prices into probabilities, remove the margin and compare.

Common questions people get wrong

• “DNB is a free bet on a draw.” It isn’t. You’re paying for the refund through a lower price.
• “Double chance can’t lose.” It loses whenever the third result happens, and short prices mean one loss wipes out several wins.
• “Draws are random so these markets are always value.” The price already reflects the chance of a draw. Value comes only from a price that’s better than the real chance.

The bottom line

Draw no bet and double chance are honest ways to reduce risk on a single match. They don’t remove the bookmaker’s margin; they reshape your bet so a draw hurts less. Check the price against the 1X2 market, keep multibets short, and only bet money you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, call the free helpline on 0800 006 008.

Compare prices at the best betting sites in South Africa.